Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, or any authorized representative of the Chinese government announces rare earth export relief for the United States between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Rare earth export relief includes any reduction, removal, or suspension of Chinese export controls or export restrictions affecting the export of rare earth elements, minerals, magnets, or related products to the United States. The extension of an existing Chinese commitment to allow exports of, or suspend export controls on, rare-earth materials to the United States (e.g. the rare earth export deal reached by the United States and China in October 2025) will also qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the rare earth export relief goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.