Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
ActiveVolume
$73M
Txns
370,889
Traders
48,595
Fees
$67
Liquidity
$544,533
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Volume
$73M
Txns
370,889
Traders
48,595
Fees
$67
Liquidity
$544,533
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | Leilani695 | Yes / 6.1¢ | +174.00 | $10.6 | |
| 1m | Anastasia197899 | Yes / 6.1¢ | -76.00 | $4.64 | |
| 1m | Cherie626 | Yes / 6.1¢ | -98.00 | $5.98 | |
| 2m | Donkov | No / 93.8¢ | +5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 2m | 0xd390...f989ae | No / 93.8¢ | -5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 2m | epicsundayfunk | Yes / 6.0¢ | +5.30 | $0.32 | |
| 2m | 0xd390...f989ae | No / 94.0¢ | +5.30 | $4.98 | |
| 4m | Donkov | No / 93.8¢ | +5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 4m | 0x2104...e3aeda | No / 93.8¢ | -5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 4m | 0x2104...e3aeda | No / 94.0¢ | +5.30 | $4.98 | |
| 4m | epicsundayfunk | Yes / 6.0¢ | +5.30 | $0.32 | |
| 5m | 0x1bbb...d68177 | No / 93.8¢ | -5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 5m | Donkov | No / 93.8¢ | +5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 5m | 0x1bbb...d68177 | No / 94.0¢ | +5.30 | $4.98 | |
| 5m | epicsundayfunk | Yes / 6.0¢ | +5.30 | $0.32 | |
| 6m | 0x2377A6e7B3aDFC11E24A41c326Faed3103604186-1777544747971 | No / 94.0¢ | +11.07 | $10.4 | |
| 6m | epicsundayfunk | Yes / 6.0¢ | +11.07 | $0.66 | |
| 6m | 0x7b52...3706a1 | No / 93.8¢ | -5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 6m | Donkov | No / 93.8¢ | +5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 6m | epicsundayfunk | Yes / 6.0¢ | +5.30 | $0.32 | |
| 6m | 0x7b52...3706a1 | No / 94.0¢ | +5.30 | $4.98 | |
| 8m | 0x1316...53b090 | No / 93.8¢ | -5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 8m | Donkov | No / 93.8¢ | +5.29 | $4.96 | |
| 8m | 0x1316...53b090 | No / 94.0¢ | +5.30 | $4.98 | |
| 8m | epicsundayfunk | Yes / 6.0¢ | +5.30 | $0.32 |
1–25
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
No 99%$11.3Mvolume
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
No 99%$1.51Mvolume
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
No 91%$2.12Mvolume
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
No 90%$870Kvolume
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?
No 95%$28.2Kvolume
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No 85%$1.64Mvolume