
Volume
$684K
Txns
12,741
Traders
1,628
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$33,569
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trades
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
No 97%$0volume
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
No 94%$0volume
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-Ju…
No 96%$0volume
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No 87%$0volume
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
No 96%$0volume
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
No 69%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h | Tenebrus7 | No / 95.9¢ | -3.90 | $3.74 | |
| 15h | Capybara5328ss | No / 95.9¢ | +3.90 | $3.74 | |
| 16h | Fairytern4029 | No / 95.9¢ | +3.86 | $3.7 | |
| 16h | Tenebrus7 | No / 95.9¢ | -3.86 | $3.7 | |
| 17h | aureliakuusik5874 | No / 95.8¢ | +0.47 | $0.45 | |
| 17h | planktonXD | Yes / 4.2¢ | +0.47 | $0.02 | |
| 18h | Dormouse529 | No / 95.9¢ | +5.21 | $5 | |
| 18h | Tenebrus7 | No / 95.9¢ | -5.21 | $5 | |
| 21h | ThunderPh03nix661 | No / 95.9¢ | +1.25 | $1.2 | |
| 21h | Tenebrus7 | No / 95.9¢ | -1.25 | $1.2 | |
| 1d | cowcat | Yes / 4.2¢ | +24.00 | $1.01 | |
| 1d | aureliakuusik5874 | No / 95.8¢ | +24.00 | $23 | |
| 1d | cowcat | Yes / 4.2¢ | +27.00 | $1.13 | |
| 1d | aureliakuusik5874 | No / 95.8¢ | +27.00 | $25.9 | |
| 1d | cowcat | Yes / 4.8¢ | +27.00 | $1.3 | |
| 1d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 4.8¢ | -27.00 | $1.3 | |
| 1d | cowcat | Yes / 4.8¢ | +27.00 | $1.3 | |
| 1d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 4.8¢ | -27.00 | $1.3 | |
| 1d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 4.8¢ | -50.00 | $2.4 | |
| 1d | aritehtaalla | Yes / 4.8¢ | +50.00 | $2.4 | |
| 1d | Narwhal530 | No / 95.9¢ | +10.19 | $9.77 | |
| 1d | Tenebrus7 | No / 95.9¢ | -10.19 | $9.77 | |
| 1d | ox51aa6B8fbD20AED3C4037056C0f3f841d7ADB50E | No / 95.1¢ | -58.00 | $55.2 | |
| 1d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 5.0¢ | -50.00 | $2.5 | |
| 1d | 0xd85Da6e47410324e32cc12fcc86e5e44A2c63700-1783433783492 | No / 95.8¢ | +8.00 | $7.66 |
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