
Volume
$409K
Txns
8,238
Traders
1,006
Fees
$4
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +2,164.82 | $2.16K | |
| 3mo | NBClover | Yes / 99.9¢ | -2,164.82 | $2.16K | |
| 3mo | Suirenzirou | Yes / 99.9¢ | -42.19 | $42.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +42.19 | $42.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +113.63 | $114 | |
| 3mo | 1984- | Yes / 99.9¢ | -113.63 | $114 | |
| 3mo | FRKMT | Yes / 99.9¢ | -40.85 | $40.8 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +40.85 | $40.8 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,078.53 | $1.08K | |
| 3mo | conotocaurius | Yes / 99.9¢ | -1,078.53 | $1.08K | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +2.56 | $2.56 | |
| 3mo | 0x3ca8...480a93 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -2.56 | $2.56 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 3mo | tugggjsz | No / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.0¢ | +6.00 | $5.94 | |
| 3mo | projectparrot | Yes / 99.0¢ | -6.00 | $5.94 | |
| 3mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.0¢ | +20.93 | $20.7 | |
| 3mo | pololita777 | Yes / 99.0¢ | -61.72 | $61.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.0¢ | +40.79 | $40.4 | |
| 3mo | 0x31ff...f898b4 | Yes / 99.0¢ | -4.65 | $4.6 | |
| 3mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.0¢ | +4.65 | $4.6 | |
| 3mo | fm14 | No / 1.0¢ | +100.00 | $1 | |
| 3mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.0¢ | +100.00 | $99 | |
| 3mo | 0x4672...2d025a | Yes / 99.0¢ | -2.02 | $2 | |
| 3mo | OraculumNobius | Yes / 99.0¢ | +2.02 | $2 |
1–25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 76%$0volume
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 79%$0volume
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No 86%$0volume
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
No 92%$0volume
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No 96%$0volume
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 100%$0volume