
Volume
$2M
Txns
22,088
Traders
2,813
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 74%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 100%$0volume
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 79%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No 72%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 92%$0volume
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No 86%$0volume
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