India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between April 29 and May 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. If the "Yes" resolution criteria are met before April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market may resolve early.