
Volume
$924
Txns
76
Traders
23
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$2,932
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Trades
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
No 100%$12Mvolume
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
No 99%$1.63Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 99%$39Mvolume
Iran leadership change by June 30?
No 100%$3.94Mvolume
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
No 88%$15.4Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 66%$10.8Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ultralisk | Yes / 36.0¢ | +10.37 | $3.73 | |
| 1d | Konfucious | No / 63.0¢ | -89.63 | $56.5 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 36.9¢ | -100.00 | $36.9 | |
| 1d | Konfucious | No / 12.0¢ | +31.20 | $3.74 | |
| 1d | AJSV | Yes / 86.0¢ | -56.60 | $48.7 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 86.7¢ | +100.00 | $86.8 | |
| 1d | 67sfds | No / 13.0¢ | +12.20 | $1.59 | |
| 1d | AJSV | Yes / 37.0¢ | +56.61 | $20.9 | |
| 1d | AJSV | No / 63.0¢ | -38.39 | $24.2 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 37.0¢ | -100.00 | $37 | |
| 1d | silverstud | Yes / 37.0¢ | +5.00 | $1.85 | |
| 1d | Konfucious | No / 18.0¢ | +37.41 | $6.73 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 82.0¢ | +37.41 | $30.7 | |
| 1d | AJSV | No / 19.0¢ | +38.40 | $7.3 | |
| 1d | AJSV | Yes / 81.0¢ | -19.19 | $15.5 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 81.0¢ | +62.59 | $50.7 | |
| 1d | silverstud | No / 19.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.95 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 31.0¢ | -80.80 | $25 | |
| 1d | Pitchforkk | Yes / 31.0¢ | +80.80 | $25 | |
| 1d | AJSV | Yes / 32.0¢ | +19.19 | $6.14 | |
| 1d | nc3iceibvtvetvbt | No / 12.0¢ | -0.01 | $0 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 32.0¢ | -19.20 | $6.15 | |
| 1d | pkoz2 | Yes / 91.0¢ | +42.74 | $38.9 | |
| 1d | nc3iceibvtvetvbt | No / 12.0¢ | -9.48 | $1.14 | |
| 1d | Konfucious | No / 9.5¢ | +52.22 | $4.98 |
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