
Volume
$1M
Txns
9,021
Traders
1,461
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
No 100%$4.55Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
No 95%$16.7Mvolume
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Yes 97%$9.98Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
No 99%$12.8Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
No 74%$46.9Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
No 97%$25.7Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo | Anne666 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -3.01 | $0 | |
| 1mo | uhhhidontknow | No / 99.9¢ | -3.01 | $3.01 | |
| 1mo | huyewell | Yes / 0.2¢ | -6.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | wenhai1058 | No / 99.8¢ | -6.00 | $5.99 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.8¢ | +709.97 | $709 | |
| 1mo | huyewell | Yes / 0.2¢ | -280.03 | $0.56 | |
| 1mo | buscett1 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +990.00 | $1.98 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | +100.00 | $99.9 | |
| 1mo | Chococremeux | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | -30.00 | $30 | |
| 1mo | vdfds435 | No / 99.9¢ | +30.00 | $30 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.8¢ | +1.35 | $1.35 | |
| 1mo | cxbtww | No / 99.8¢ | -1.35 | $1.35 | |
| 1mo | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 | No / 99.8¢ | -5.00 | $4.99 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.8¢ | +5.00 | $4.99 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.8¢ | +101.10 | $101 | |
| 1mo | presalema | No / 99.8¢ | -101.10 | $101 | |
| 1mo | presalema | No / 99.9¢ | +101.10 | $101 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | -101.10 | $101 | |
| 1mo | 0xa5ce...cb7785 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +500.00 | $1 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.8¢ | +500.00 | $499 | |
| 1mo | LuckyPierrot | No / 99.9¢ | +3,141.00 | $3.14K | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | -1,367.53 | $1.37K | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | -1,773.47 | $1.77K | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | -10.00 | $9.99 |
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