
Volume
$76K
Txns
2,359
Traders
590
Fees
$0
Ends
May 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by DeepSeek has a higher arena score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by May 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best OpenAI arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No 96%$0volume
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No 86%$0volume
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
No 84%$0volume
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
No 92%$0volume
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 84%$0volume
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
No 93%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | Plant2tri | No / 99.9¢ | -81.91 | $81.8 | |
| 1y | MAGA.MUSK | No / 99.9¢ | +81.91 | $81.8 | |
| 1y | 0x386f...d343b1 | No / 99.9¢ | -5.34 | $5.33 | |
| 1y | 0x2496...f385e8 | No / 99.9¢ | -8.16 | $8.15 | |
| 1y | 0xcd43...499626 | No / 99.9¢ | -5.50 | $5.49 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.8¢ | -234.87 | $234 | |
| 1y | 0xcfbe...c318cf | No / 99.9¢ | -7.51 | $7.5 | |
| 1y | 0x897f...5c5ce1 | No / 99.9¢ | -7.28 | $7.27 | |
| 1y | qwertzu | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | MAGA.MUSK | No / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 1y | 0x6876...045f02 | No / 99.9¢ | -5.77 | $5.76 | |
| 1y | 0xd547...a976a3 | No / 99.9¢ | -7.15 | $7.14 | |
| 1y | 0x638d809F32E9e45c91Dd9Ac3EAd1551a2cc25536-1740056539725 | No / 99.9¢ | -10.33 | $10.3 | |
| 1y | Plant2tri | No / 99.9¢ | -658.09 | $657 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.8¢ | -1.70 | $1.7 | |
| 1y | melinda42 | No / 99.8¢ | +1.70 | $1.7 | |
| 1y | lauraellis | No / 99.8¢ | +1.15 | $1.15 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.8¢ | -1.15 | $1.15 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.8¢ | -1.49 | $1.49 | |
| 1y | agay | No / 99.8¢ | +1.49 | $1.49 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.8¢ | -20.16 | $20.1 | |
| 1y | Dando | No / 99.8¢ | +20.16 | $20.1 | |
| 1y | Razirback | No / 99.0¢ | -0.01 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | SYSY.CN | No / 99.0¢ | +0.01 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | luciferx | No / 99.8¢ | +1.00 | $1 |
1–25