Volume
$276
Txns
34
Traders
18
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$5,280
Ends
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 73%$0volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 72%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 99%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 86%$0volume
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No 89%$0volume
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
No 91%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | RustyScissors | No / 85.5¢ | -0.76 | $0.65 | |
| 2h | 0xf528...127e5b | No / 85.5¢ | +0.76 | $0.65 | |
| 6h | Haradwaith | No / 89.9¢ | +49.50 | $44.5 | |
| 6h | stravid | Yes / 10.1¢ | +49.50 | $5 | |
| 8h | sepehrs | Yes / 6.4¢ | +78.45 | $5 | |
| 8h | AlAhmeda | No / 92.0¢ | +20.00 | $18.4 | |
| 8h | Numitus1994 | Yes / 6.0¢ | -21.00 | $1.26 | |
| 8h | Mojito9 | Yes / 5.2¢ | -9.70 | $0.5 | |
| 8h | RustyScissors | No / 71.3¢ | +0.76 | $0.54 | |
| 8h | heipi5 | No / 94.7¢ | +20.00 | $18.9 | |
| 8h | trade333 | Yes / 5.1¢ | -6.99 | $0.36 | |
| 8h | Mojito9 | Yes / 2.9¢ | +10.00 | $0.29 | |
| 8h | Mojito9 | No / 97.1¢ | -9.70 | $9.42 | |
| 8h | Anony777 | Yes / 2.8¢ | +0.30 | $0.01 | |
| 8h | Mangogoo12 | Yes / 2.9¢ | -20.00 | $0.58 | |
| 14h | guo-rich | No / 94.6¢ | -20.00 | $18.9 | |
| 14h | trade333 | Yes / 5.4¢ | -15.00 | $0.81 | |
| 14h | Mojito9 | No / 94.6¢ | +5.00 | $4.73 | |
| 14h | sakura11 | No / 95.0¢ | -20.00 | $19 | |
| 14h | guo-rich | No / 95.0¢ | +20.00 | $19 | |
| 14h | sakura11 | No / 95.0¢ | +20.00 | $19 | |
| 14h | 0xD324e20e3462d859a2913C5bfD162Ed7F9Aeb23c-1773152871743 | Yes / 5.0¢ | +20.00 | $1 | |
| 14h | Mangogoo12 | Yes / 5.6¢ | +20.00 | $1.12 | |
| 14h | Mojito9 | No / 94.4¢ | +5.00 | $4.72 | |
| 14h | trade333 | Yes / 5.6¢ | -15.00 | $0.84 |
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