Fed rate cut by...?

Open8 markets·Ends Jun 17, 2026

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$5M

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50,821

Traders

5,171

Fees

$2,871

Fed Jerome Powell Economy Economic Policy

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Market
December Meeting	19%	$0	$46.9K
October Meeting	14%	$215	$38.7K
September Meeting	5%	$1.57K	$107K
July Meeting	2%	$14.9K	$156K
June Meeting	NoResolved	$0	$0
April Meeting	NoResolved	$0	$0
January Meeting	NoResolved	$0	$0
March Meeting	NoResolved	$0	$0

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
13h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	AcikUncle	Yes / 13.0¢	-60.00	$7.79
13h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 PPMT	No / 86.4¢	-45.00	$38.9
13h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 ozgun	Yes / 13.5¢	+15.00	$2.02
18h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 ozgun	Yes / 12.6¢	+11.10	$1.46
18h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 Elias.Thornwell	No / 87.4¢	+11.10	$9.7
19h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+1,067.63	$16.8
19h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+1,067.63	$1.05K
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+2,275.84	$2.24K
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+2,275.84	$35.8
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 chenhanxin05	No / 98.8¢	+45.00	$44.5
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.2¢	+165.13	$2.08
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dex53	No / 98.8¢	+120.13	$119
21h	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 frostyk	Yes / 5.0¢	-163.32	$8.25
21h	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 podairpod	No / 94.7¢	-163.32	$155
21h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dolit	No / 99.1¢	+11.10	$11
21h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 tolledo	Yes / 0.9¢	+11.10	$0.1
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 0x0c3d...25cfbf	Yes / 5.4¢	-6.42	$0.35
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 5.7¢	+6.42	$0.37
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.1¢	+100.00	$1.1
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.0¢	-100.00	$1.05
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	No / 98.7¢	+424.86	$419
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.3¢	+424.86	$5.8
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.1¢	-98.00	$1.03
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 tolledo	Yes / 1.2¢	+6.56	$0.08
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.1¢	+91.44	$1.01
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	No / 98.6¢	+93.00	$91.7
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.4¢	+93.00	$1.37
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 tolledo	Yes / 1.2¢	+197.60	$2.37
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.2¢	+312.40	$3.75
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.1¢	-510.00	$5.82
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	No / 98.6¢	+306.40	$302
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.4¢	+306.40	$4.5
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.2¢	-400.00	$4.77
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.2¢	+187.60	$2.25
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.3¢	+207.16	$2.69
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 0x987ea140C1FEc8f616a52318840ff1482360c3bd-1776356291225	No / 98.6¢	-5.24	$5.17
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+570.34	$562
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.5¢	+570.34	$8.98
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 Elias.Thornwell	Yes / 5.4¢	-18.42	$1
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 5.7¢	+18.42	$1.05
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+1,078.34	$1.06K
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+1,414.34	$22.3
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dex52	No / 98.5¢	+25.00	$24.6
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 QMG-MACRO	No / 98.5¢	+311.00	$306
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+1,560.83	$24.6
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 QMG-MACRO	No / 98.5¢	+1,560.83	$1.54K
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 QMG-CORE	No / 98.6¢	+407.05	$401
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.4¢	+412.05	$6.05
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dex53	No / 98.6¢	+5.00	$4.93
1d	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 0xE8C428250693d7f1E588ba6F4666d02E68F0eA5c-1782008528190	No / 84.6¢	+18.98	$16.1

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
13h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	AcikUncle	Yes / 13.0¢	-60.00	$7.79
13h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 PPMT	No / 86.4¢	-45.00	$38.9
13h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 ozgun	Yes / 13.5¢	+15.00	$2.02
18h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 ozgun	Yes / 12.6¢	+11.10	$1.46
18h	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 Elias.Thornwell	No / 87.4¢	+11.10	$9.7
19h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+1,067.63	$16.8
19h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+1,067.63	$1.05K
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+2,275.84	$2.24K
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+2,275.84	$35.8
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 chenhanxin05	No / 98.8¢	+45.00	$44.5
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.2¢	+165.13	$2.08
20h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dex53	No / 98.8¢	+120.13	$119
21h	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 frostyk	Yes / 5.0¢	-163.32	$8.25
21h	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 podairpod	No / 94.7¢	-163.32	$155
21h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dolit	No / 99.1¢	+11.10	$11
21h	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 tolledo	Yes / 0.9¢	+11.10	$0.1
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 0x0c3d...25cfbf	Yes / 5.4¢	-6.42	$0.35
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 5.7¢	+6.42	$0.37
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.1¢	+100.00	$1.1
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.0¢	-100.00	$1.05
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	No / 98.7¢	+424.86	$419
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.3¢	+424.86	$5.8
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.1¢	-98.00	$1.03
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 tolledo	Yes / 1.2¢	+6.56	$0.08
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.1¢	+91.44	$1.01
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	No / 98.6¢	+93.00	$91.7
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.4¢	+93.00	$1.37
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 tolledo	Yes / 1.2¢	+197.60	$2.37
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.2¢	+312.40	$3.75
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.1¢	-510.00	$5.82
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	No / 98.6¢	+306.40	$302
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.4¢	+306.40	$4.5
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.2¢	-400.00	$4.77
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.2¢	+187.60	$2.25
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 1.3¢	+207.16	$2.69
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 0x987ea140C1FEc8f616a52318840ff1482360c3bd-1776356291225	No / 98.6¢	-5.24	$5.17
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+570.34	$562
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Tender-Series	Yes / 1.5¢	+570.34	$8.98
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 Elias.Thornwell	Yes / 5.4¢	-18.42	$1
1d	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	0 ttwong1	Yes / 5.7¢	+18.42	$1.05
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 TheReturnOfDarthMaul	No / 98.5¢	+1,078.34	$1.06K
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+1,414.34	$22.3
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dex52	No / 98.5¢	+25.00	$24.6
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 QMG-MACRO	No / 98.5¢	+311.00	$306
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.5¢	+1,560.83	$24.6
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 QMG-MACRO	No / 98.5¢	+1,560.83	$1.54K
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 QMG-CORE	No / 98.6¢	+407.05	$401
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dorcas510	Yes / 1.4¢	+412.05	$6.05
1d	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	0 dex53	No / 98.6¢	+5.00	$4.93
1d	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	0 0xE8C428250693d7f1E588ba6F4666d02E68F0eA5c-1782008528190	No / 84.6¢	+18.98	$16.1

Fed rate cut by...?

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Fed rate cut by...?

Markets

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Recent trades

Recent trades

Fed rate cut by...?

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Markets

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Fed rate cut by...?

Probability history

Probability history

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Recent trades

Probability history

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