
Volume
$2M
Txns
6,846
Traders
579
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the listed country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. If the U.S. does not strike another country by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027". If the U.S. strikes a country which is not listed next, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +44.04 | $44 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +74.00 | $73.9 | |
| 6mo | Lcflo | Yes / 99.9¢ | -118.04 | $118 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +81.00 | $80.9 | |
| 6mo | 0xreef | Yes / 99.9¢ | -81.00 | $80.9 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +156.00 | $156 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +38.00 | $38 | |
| 6mo | 0xA9D9a9CDdFf37d6927FB137BCD649F6994A37695-1761250949997 | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +156.00 | $156 | |
| 6mo | Ahpo | Yes / 99.9¢ | +650.00 | $649 | |
| 6mo | aviato | Yes / 98.0¢ | +1,000.00 | $980 | |
| 6mo | Ordon | Yes / 99.4¢ | +948.16 | $942 | |
| 6mo | aviato | Yes / 99.3¢ | +3,337.85 | $3.31K | |
| 6mo | aviato | Yes / 99.0¢ | +1,000.00 | $990 | |
| 6mo | Mrbig1 | No / 1.1¢ | +9,018.10 | $100 | |
| 6mo | aviato | Yes / 98.5¢ | +2,000.00 | $1.97K | |
| 6mo | aviato | Yes / 97.6¢ | +12.09 | $11.8 | |
| 6mo | 0x4e25...5cd7a7 | Yes / 99.0¢ | +126.00 | $125 | |
| 6mo | EveryMoleIsMagic | Yes / 99.1¢ | +144.00 | $143 | |
| 6mo | 0x4e25...5cd7a7 | Yes / 98.0¢ | +270.00 | $265 | |
| 6mo | 0x4e25...5cd7a7 | Yes / 98.5¢ | +180.00 | $177 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +154.00 | $154 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +155.00 | $155 | |
| 6mo | ZhangMuZhi- | Yes / 99.9¢ | +152.00 | $152 | |
| 6mo | Pikapoka3 | No / 0.1¢ | +740.83 | $1 |
1–25
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes 83%$0volume
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No 69%$0volume
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
No 100%$0volume
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
No 100%$0volume
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
No 98%$0volume
Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 202…
No 100%$0volume