
Volume
$5M
Txns
104,397
Traders
18,633
Fees
$230
Liquidity
$79,270
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Trades
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 100%$0volume
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Yes 100%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No 67%$0volume
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
No 92%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 90%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No 60%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 70.0¢ | -6.42 | $4.49 | |
| 2h | Po1yBot-JRsv56Afsg | Yes / 30.0¢ | -6.42 | $1.93 | |
| 8h | Scullyy | No / 69.0¢ | +15.00 | $10.3 | |
| 8h | PMTraderAdam | No / 68.0¢ | +43.17 | $29.4 | |
| 8h | Zaratustra | No / 69.0¢ | +4.83 | $3.33 | |
| 8h | ktv.01 | Yes / 31.0¢ | -20.00 | $6.2 | |
| 8h | 0xA3af760e15e6B6bd3C43d8cf2AE6952F0a9bB7a6-1720875307802 | No / 69.0¢ | +17.00 | $11.7 | |
| 8h | albuquerque | No / 68.6¢ | -100.00 | $68.6 | |
| 9h | 0x9bBe998E9C57b648Fc02c8B15b0901159c7C8630-1773772366447 | Yes / 30.0¢ | -5.60 | $1.68 | |
| 9h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 70.0¢ | -5.60 | $3.92 | |
| 9h | Zaratustra | No / 69.0¢ | +95.17 | $65.7 | |
| 9h | betjunkie | No / 69.0¢ | +209.61 | $145 | |
| 9h | Scullyy | No / 69.0¢ | +15.00 | $10.3 | |
| 9h | TralaleloTralalala | No / 69.0¢ | -334.78 | $231 | |
| 9h | OneLastHurrah | Yes / 31.0¢ | -15.00 | $4.65 | |
| 10h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 70.0¢ | -158.57 | $111 | |
| 10h | csgod | No / 70.0¢ | +158.57 | $111 | |
| 10h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 70.0¢ | -1.50 | $1.05 | |
| 10h | asfdt1 | No / 70.0¢ | +1.50 | $1.05 | |
| 10h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 70.0¢ | -7.31 | $5.12 | |
| 10h | 0xca08...26c267 | No / 70.0¢ | +7.31 | $5.17 | |
| 10h | ktv.01 | No / 69.0¢ | +25.00 | $17.3 | |
| 10h | 0x3885...dc77ab | No / 70.0¢ | +2.96 | $2.09 | |
| 10h | ninasimon | No / 70.0¢ | +5.90 | $4.13 | |
| 10h | 15billionplus | No / 69.0¢ | +123.00 | $84.9 |
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