Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?
ActiveVolume
$249
Txns
36
Traders
20
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$1,011
Ends
Volume
$249
Txns
36
Traders
20
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$1,011
Ends
Jun 10, 2026
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | unclefei028 | Yes / 43.0¢ | +11.63 | $5.14 | |
| 2h | strangeduck2 | No / 57.0¢ | +11.63 | $6.63 | |
| 9h | strangeduck2 | No / 57.0¢ | +2.33 | $1.33 | |
| 9h | 0x988eEF426024FD24E9867a160D4496DfdD78d0d0-1772654711063 | Yes / 43.0¢ | +2.33 | $1.03 | |
| 14h | 0x43dea88d3692adc0941b4f0cd8fb2c3eea6ee520 | Yes / 43.0¢ | +2.33 | $1.03 | |
| 14h | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 57.0¢ | +2.33 | $1.33 | |
| 17h | graynotebook19 | No / 37.0¢ | +3.05 | $1.13 | |
| 17h | joeyIsleepy | Yes / 63.0¢ | +3.05 | $1.96 | |
| 17h | Mojito9 | No / 38.0¢ | +10.00 | $3.8 | |
| 17h | graynotebook19 | No / 36.0¢ | +21.56 | $7.76 | |
| 17h | 5ttegrirmw7p | Yes / 63.4¢ | +31.56 | $20.6 | |
| 17h | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 61.0¢ | +123.00 | $75 | |
| 17h | russell110320 | Yes / 38.6¢ | +155.49 | $61.8 | |
| 17h | 0x5934...0a48fc | Yes / 37.0¢ | -32.49 | $12 | |
| 1d | Mojito9 | Yes / 28.0¢ | -1.00 | $0.28 | |
| 1d | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 28.0¢ | +1.00 | $0.29 | |
| 4d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 19.0¢ | +3.41 | $0.65 | |
| 4d | itsjustcheddar | No / 81.0¢ | +20.00 | $16.4 | |
| 4d | Hugin-og-Munin | No / 81.0¢ | +6.00 | $4.91 | |
| 4d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 19.0¢ | +20.00 | $3.8 | |
| 4d | aHjCz | No / 81.0¢ | +3.41 | $2.79 | |
| 4d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 19.0¢ | +6.00 | $1.14 | |
| 7d | wavesinthesky | Yes / 28.3¢ | +4.95 | $1.4 | |
| 7d | Mojito9 | Yes / 28.0¢ | -5.00 | $1.4 | |
| 9d | 0x993FE20a9ecFB7e3c072F7f8c3dcBF87243b35C | Yes / 5.7¢ | -5.00 | $0.29 |
1–25
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Yes 57%$6.83Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
No 88%$9.04Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
No 92%$21.7Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?
No 94%$2.52Kvolume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 98%$353Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 64%$381Kvolume