Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026?
ActiveVolume
$349
Txns
39
Traders
18
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$844
Volume
$349
Txns
39
Traders
18
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$844
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17h | 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209 | No / 92.0¢ | +100.00 | $92.4 | |
| 17h | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 8.0¢ | +100.00 | $8 | |
| 17h | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 8.0¢ | +100.00 | $8 | |
| 17h | 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209 | No / 92.0¢ | +100.00 | $92.4 | |
| 19h | 49ddgfd | Yes / 10.0¢ | +8.90 | $0.89 | |
| 19h | 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209 | No / 90.0¢ | +8.90 | $8.05 | |
| 19h | 49ddgfd | Yes / 10.0¢ | +8.68 | $0.87 | |
| 19h | 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209 | Yes / 9.6¢ | -8.68 | $0.83 | |
| 1d | 49ddgfd | Yes / 9.0¢ | -8.68 | $0.78 | |
| 1d | 0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209 | Yes / 9.0¢ | +8.68 | $0.82 | |
| 1d | ballzi. | Yes / 9.0¢ | +3.00 | $0.27 | |
| 1d | somecode33 | Yes / 8.6¢ | -3.00 | $0.26 | |
| 1d | ballzi. | Yes / 9.0¢ | +3.63 | $0.33 | |
| 1d | 49ddgfd | Yes / 10.0¢ | +1.50 | $0.15 | |
| 1d | mascapollas | No / 90.7¢ | +5.13 | $4.67 | |
| 1d | 49ddgfd | Yes / 10.0¢ | +10.00 | $1 | |
| 1d | PedroGonzales | No / 90.0¢ | +10.00 | $9.04 | |
| 5d | AJSV | Yes / 16.0¢ | +7.99 | $1.28 | |
| 5d | nc3iceibvtvetvbt | Yes / 15.3¢ | -7.99 | $1.22 | |
| 7d | Lavincey | Yes / 6.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.3 | |
| 7d | 918.btc | Yes / 5.7¢ | -9.99 | $0.57 | |
| 7d | Mojito9 | Yes / 6.0¢ | +4.99 | $0.3 | |
| 7d | 0x60d8...a8915a | Yes / 44.8¢ | -9.99 | $4.47 | |
| 7d | 918.btc | Yes / 46.0¢ | +9.99 | $4.6 | |
| 9d | nc3iceibvtvetvbt | Yes / 10.0¢ | +8.00 | $0.8 |
1–25
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 63%$353Kvolume
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 90%$4.86Kvolume
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
No 96%$309Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 71%$412Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?
No 99%$1.06Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
No 87%$1.33Kvolume