Volume
$7K
Txns
486
Traders
88
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$23,103
Ends
Jun 28, 2026
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Trades
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
No 100%$2.42Mvolume
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?
No 100%$1.82Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 95%$34.9Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
No 65%$3.43Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No 100%$74.5Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 52%$9.04Mvolume
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