
Volume
$2M
Txns
23,813
Traders
3,561
Fees
$1,359
Liquidity
$28,578
Ends
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | baran-ludoman | Yes / 18.0¢ | +10.00 | $1.8 | |
| 1h | 0x3CFf61C9A93C80B02081c7859853e701BbF76fBd-1780459443269 | No / 82.0¢ | +10.00 | $8.27 | |
| 1h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +93.33 | $76.5 | |
| 1h | OxygenDrop | Yes / 18.0¢ | +93.33 | $17.5 | |
| 2h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +1.21 | $0.99 | |
| 2h | engin02 | No / 81.3¢ | -1.21 | $0.98 | |
| 2h | mehanizator | Yes / 17.0¢ | +1.20 | $0.2 | |
| 2h | engin02 | No / 83.0¢ | +1.20 | $1.01 | |
| 2h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +6.28 | $5.15 | |
| 2h | 0x2960...dd5fc3 | Yes / 18.0¢ | +6.28 | $1.18 | |
| 2h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +1.20 | $0.98 | |
| 2h | engin02 | No / 81.3¢ | -1.20 | $0.98 | |
| 2h | engin02 | No / 83.0¢ | +1.20 | $1.01 | |
| 2h | mehanizator | Yes / 17.0¢ | +1.20 | $0.2 | |
| 2h | engin02 | No / 81.3¢ | -1.20 | $0.98 | |
| 2h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +1.20 | $0.98 | |
| 2h | engin02 | No / 83.0¢ | +1.20 | $1.01 | |
| 2h | mehanizator | Yes / 17.0¢ | +1.20 | $0.2 | |
| 4h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +6.00 | $4.92 | |
| 4h | hm-a | Yes / 18.0¢ | +6.00 | $1.12 | |
| 5h | cy6erpunker | No / 81.3¢ | -1.47 | $1.19 | |
| 5h | baran-ludoman | No / 82.0¢ | +1.47 | $1.21 | |
| 6h | hm-a | No / 83.0¢ | +60.00 | $50.2 | |
| 6h | hm-a | No / 83.0¢ | +65.00 | $54.4 | |
| 6h | mehanizator | Yes / 17.0¢ | +60.00 | $10.2 |
1–25
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Yes 59%$346Kvolume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.21Mvolume
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
No 90%$951Kvolume
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
No 73%$250Kvolume
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
No 97%$154Kvolume
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
No 100%$208Kvolume