
Volume
$160K
Txns
3,178
Traders
503
Fees
$0
Ends
Oct 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conducts a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9mo | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +77.55 | $0.16 | |
| 9mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +339.00 | $0.34 | |
| 9mo | 0xf03a...ee7a9a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | obezyana | No / 99.5¢ | -34.21 | $34 | |
| 9mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +51.88 | $0.1 | |
| 9mo | 0xa4b4...1fefc6 | No / 99.5¢ | -17.00 | $16.9 | |
| 9mo | MalarkeyMaster | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 9mo | blunderbot | No / 99.9¢ | -386.81 | $386 | |
| 9mo | elmcap2 | No / 99.9¢ | +969.45 | $968 | |
| 9mo | simulacrum3 | Yes / 1.1¢ | -1,078.38 | $11.9 | |
| 9mo | doubleone | No / 98.9¢ | -1,125.38 | $1.11K | |
| 9mo | 0xa4b4...1fefc6 | No / 99.0¢ | +17.00 | $16.8 | |
| 9mo | obezyana | No / 99.0¢ | +30.00 | $29.7 | |
| 9mo | 0x2d30...8278ff | No / 99.7¢ | +22.66 | $22.6 | |
| 9mo | 4... | Yes / 0.3¢ | +22.66 | $0.07 | |
| 9mo | Burnmoneyuser | No / 99.7¢ | +35.00 | $34.9 | |
| 9mo | 4... | Yes / 0.4¢ | +15.00 | $0.06 | |
| 9mo | Lkens | No / 99.7¢ | -20.00 | $19.9 | |
| 9mo | simulacrum3 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +750.00 | $7.5 | |
| 9mo | Nadmi | Yes / 1.1¢ | +123.79 | $1.36 | |
| 9mo | Burnmoneyuser | No / 99.0¢ | +873.79 | $865 | |
| 9mo | Nadmi | Yes / 1.1¢ | +17.69 | $0.19 | |
| 9mo | 0xe00c...d30209 | No / 98.9¢ | +17.69 | $17.5 | |
| 9mo | arabsearch | No / 98.9¢ | +5.00 | $4.95 |
1–25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 76%$0volume
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
Yes 81%$0volume
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No 72%$0volume
Trump out as President by July 31?
No 100%$0volume
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
No 97%$0volume
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
No 91%$0volume