
Volume
$133K
Txns
1,436
Traders
296
Fees
$2
Liquidity
$0
Ends
Jun 16, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Trades
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
No 96%$18.1Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No 84%$22.2Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
No 100%$1.44Mvolume
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
No 100%$1.02Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Yes 100%$10.1Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No 99%$63.3Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20m | 0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | No / 87.0¢ | +61.54 | $53.5 | |
| 20m | 0x9fc3...e31f1f | Yes / 13.0¢ | +61.54 | $8.32 | |
| 25m | Robbb | No / 88.0¢ | +50.00 | $44 | |
| 25m | Dit26978 | No / 88.0¢ | -50.00 | $44 | |
| 30m | 0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | No / 87.0¢ | +146.15 | $127 | |
| 30m | KriteriTraderJoe | Yes / 13.0¢ | +146.15 | $19 | |
| 41m | loijhl | Yes / 12.0¢ | -7.27 | $0.87 | |
| 41m | HerrieDavis | No / 88.0¢ | -7.27 | $6.4 | |
| 1h | 0x3d8891a8DACc3B38748372fb2A51d92F57EC39d8-1776488672016 | Yes / 13.0¢ | +38.46 | $5 | |
| 1h | 0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | No / 87.0¢ | +38.46 | $33.5 | |
| 1h | KriteriTraderJoe | Yes / 13.0¢ | +149.23 | $19.4 | |
| 1h | 0x35e36FaA4cf1488D120580302Ed1d149bE749188-1775509899044 | No / 87.0¢ | +33.58 | $29.2 | |
| 1h | 0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | No / 87.0¢ | +115.65 | $101 | |
| 1h | havehave | Yes / 12.0¢ | -1,000.00 | $120 | |
| 1h | dex52 | No / 88.0¢ | +5.00 | $4.4 | |
| 1h | sirmisterk | Yes / 12.0¢ | -7.55 | $0.91 | |
| 1h | thepolwinner | Yes / 12.0¢ | -50.17 | $6.02 | |
| 1h | Lisaliu | Yes / 12.0¢ | +4,523.96 | $543 | |
| 1h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 88.0¢ | +2,000.00 | $1.76K | |
| 1h | thepolwinner | Yes / 12.0¢ | -16.02 | $1.92 | |
| 1h | thepolwinner | Yes / 12.0¢ | -50.17 | $6.02 | |
| 1h | thepolwinner | Yes / 12.0¢ | -50.17 | $6.02 | |
| 1h | Kaiserklein-h | No / 88.0¢ | +1,344.88 | $1.18K | |
| 1h | Kaiserklein-h | No / 88.0¢ | +1.12 | $0.99 | |
| 1h | rkspac | No / 88.0¢ | -1.12 | $0.99 |
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