
Volume
$121K
Txns
1,599
Traders
328
Fees
$0
Ends
Jul 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military or intelligence personnel directly participate in a ground operation at or targeting Iran's Fordow nuclear facility by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, Israeli personnel must carry out or support a direct operation against the Fordow site with the intent of sabotaging, destroying, or seizing the facility. Airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, targeted operations against specific personnel, or operations by proxies or third parties without Israeli ground presence will not qualify. Actions taken by Israeli military or intelligence personnel on the ground which do not enter the facility and do not directly seek to destroy or sabotage the facility, including the use of ATGMS, loitering munitions, and FPV drones to target air defenses, or surface infrastructure will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 76%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 100%$0volume
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 79%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No 73%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 94%$0volume
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
No 100%$0volume
1–25