
Volume
$474K
Txns
5,855
Traders
947
Fees
$0
Ends
Jul 16, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. Actions taken by proxy groups (e.g. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | pinniethewooh | Yes / 0.1¢ | -25.73 | $0.03 | |
| 1y | theneorealist | No / 99.9¢ | -25.73 | $25.7 | |
| 1y | hunter48 | No / 99.9¢ | -130.61 | $130 | |
| 1y | pinniethewooh | Yes / 0.1¢ | -130.61 | $0.13 | |
| 1y | pinniethewooh | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,309.95 | $1.31 | |
| 1y | KennyM | No / 99.9¢ | -1,309.95 | $1.31K | |
| 1y | AngCh | No / 99.9¢ | -4,999.97 | $4.99K | |
| 1y | steamboatwilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -2,466.01 | $2.47 | |
| 1y | pinniethewooh | Yes / 0.1¢ | -2,533.96 | $2.53 | |
| 1y | GoodOldBogan | No / 99.9¢ | -578.33 | $578 | |
| 1y | steamboatwilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -578.33 | $0.58 | |
| 1y | Nobody23041 | No / 99.9¢ | -509.91 | $509 | |
| 1y | steamboatwilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -509.91 | $0.51 | |
| 1y | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +643.00 | $0.64 | |
| 1y | steamboatwilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -643.00 | $0.64 | |
| 1y | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +125.00 | $0.13 | |
| 1y | pinniethewooh | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8,953.08 | $8.95 | |
| 1y | steamboatwilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -10,912.06 | $10.9 | |
| 1y | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +782.00 | $0.78 | |
| 1y | shsyci | No / 99.9¢ | -100.00 | $99.9 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -500.00 | $500 | |
| 1y | BenjarninNetanyahu | No / 99.9¢ | -451.98 | $452 | |
| 1y | dashula | Yes / 0.6¢ | -6.66 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | syhh | No / 99.4¢ | -6.66 | $6.62 | |
| 1y | pinniethewooh | Yes / 0.1¢ | +20.20 | $0.02 |
1–25
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 77%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
No 100%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No 80%$0volume
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 79%$0volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 94%$0volume