Israel false flag attack confirmed?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that Israel, between February 28, 2026, 12:00am ET and March 2, 2026, 11:59pm ET, carried out, or attempted to carry out, a false-flag attack within the territory of a Listed Gulf State. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “false-flag attack” is defined as a hostile cover military intelligence operation deliberately designed to appear as though it was conducted by another actor. Official confirmation from a listed Gulf State that Israel carried out or attempted such an action within its territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Official confirmation requires an unambiguous, on-the-record public statement issued by a national government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Israel carried out or attempted to carry out the qualifying action. Listed Gulf States here refers to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. Statements from the Israeli government acknowledging that it carried out or attempted to carry out such an action within the territory of a listed Gulf State will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no qualifying confirmation has emerged by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official government statements; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also qualify.