
Volume
$177K
Txns
2,728
Traders
536
Fees
$0
Ends
Jan 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. - Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam - Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf
Trades
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Yes 100%$1.21Mvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Yes 100%$796Kvolume
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Yes 100%$1.24Mvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Yes 100%$809Kvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Yes 100%$813Kvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Yes 100%$351Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4mo | p1erekup | No / 99.1¢ | -31.54 | $31.3 | |
| 4mo | hunggin | No / 99.1¢ | +31.54 | $31.3 | |
| 4mo | vvrjmaakf73q | No / 97.9¢ | -5.07 | $4.96 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 2.1¢ | -5.07 | $0.11 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 1.4¢ | +5.07 | $0.07 | |
| 4mo | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 2.0¢ | +50.00 | $1 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 1.4¢ | +5.07 | $0.07 | |
| 4mo | 5toparfra1cl | No / 98.6¢ | +5.07 | $5 | |
| 4mo | 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941 | No / 98.0¢ | +1,021.83 | $1K | |
| 4mo | TaishanTrades | No / 98.0¢ | -971.83 | $952 | |
| 4mo | vvrjmaakf73q | No / 98.6¢ | +5.07 | $5 | |
| 4mo | p1erekup | No / 98.0¢ | +24.75 | $24.3 | |
| 4mo | TaishanTrades | No / 98.0¢ | -24.75 | $24.3 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 1.8¢ | -45.00 | $0.81 | |
| 4mo | hunggin | No / 98.1¢ | +100.00 | $98.1 | |
| 4mo | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 1.8¢ | -5.61 | $0.1 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 1.7¢ | -8.41 | $0.14 | |
| 4mo | p1erekup | No / 98.4¢ | +6.78 | $6.67 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 1.8¢ | -5.09 | $0.09 | |
| 4mo | TaishanTrades | No / 98.2¢ | -170.89 | $168 | |
| 4mo | NFLandChill | Yes / 0.6¢ | -5.02 | $0.03 | |
| 4mo | p1erekup | No / 99.4¢ | -5.02 | $4.99 | |
| 4mo | Minalll | No / 98.5¢ | -5.03 | $4.95 | |
| 4mo | p1erekup | No / 98.5¢ | +5.03 | $4.95 | |
| 4mo | Rubrum369 | No / 97.8¢ | -5.00 | $4.89 |
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