Volume
$5K
Txns
109
Traders
43
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$12,283
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21h | AlAhmeda | No / 99.7¢ | +344.00 | $343 | |
| 21h | LornaPredicts | Yes / 0.3¢ | +344.00 | $1.03 | |
| 21h | 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes / 0.4¢ | +98.99 | $0.4 | |
| 21h | AlAhmeda | No / 99.6¢ | +98.99 | $98.6 | |
| 1d | 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes / 0.4¢ | +1.00 | $0 | |
| 1d | Zacharics | No / 99.6¢ | +1.00 | $1 | |
| 2d | Ultimus1 | Yes / 1.6¢ | +125.00 | $2 | |
| 2d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.6¢ | -25.00 | $0.4 | |
| 2d | 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes / 1.6¢ | -100.00 | $1.6 | |
| 2d | Hugo459440 | No / 99.3¢ | +130.00 | $129 | |
| 2d | LornaPredicts | Yes / 0.7¢ | +10.00 | $0.07 | |
| 2d | AlAhmeda | No / 99.5¢ | -20.00 | $19.9 | |
| 2d | 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes / 0.8¢ | +100.00 | $0.8 | |
| 2d | longdated-poli | Yes / 0.7¢ | -50.00 | $0.35 | |
| 2d | LornaPredicts | Yes / 0.7¢ | +50.00 | $0.35 | |
| 2d | longdated-poli | Yes / 0.8¢ | +50.00 | $0.4 | |
| 2d | wfsxfwetrdsf | Yes / 0.8¢ | -50.00 | $0.4 | |
| 2d | lionnow | No / 99.0¢ | -41.00 | $40.6 | |
| 2d | rocketcrypto | Yes / 1.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.05 | |
| 2d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.4¢ | +142.00 | $1.99 | |
| 2d | wfsxfwetrdsf | Yes / 1.3¢ | +50.00 | $0.65 | |
| 2d | nc3iceibvtvetvbt | Yes / 1.4¢ | +78.56 | $1.1 | |
| 2d | Hugo459440 | No / 98.7¢ | +356.56 | $352 | |
| 2d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 1.5¢ | +40.00 | $0.6 | |
| 3d | namemmonkey | No / 98.9¢ | +40.00 | $39.6 |
1–25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
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Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
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Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
No 97%$0volume
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
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Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-Ju…
No 96%$0volume
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
No 97%$0volume