THEBABAYAGA Polymarket Trader

How We Built Realtime Precomputed PnL for PolymarketRead the post

Explorer

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Volume

Fees

Trades

Avg trade size

					Merge
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31… YesFinance 31.99 shares	71.8¢ / 69.5¢	-$0.75 (-3.3%)	$22.7 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 31, 2026 2:59 AM

Market	Entry / Current	PnL	Buys	Sells	Merge	Last Active
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? WonNoPolitics	68.4¢ / 100.0¢	$143 (45.3%)	$316 · 5	$460 · 1	$0	Apr 5, 2026 2:00 AM
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? WonYesPolitics	79.6¢ / 100.0¢	$131 (25.0%)	$524 · 2	$655 · 1	$0	Apr 11, 2026 12:36 AM
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? WonNoPolitics	65.4¢ / 100.0¢	$125 (47.1%)	$265 · 6	$390 · 2	$0	Mar 30, 2026 7:28 AM
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? WonYesPolitics	48.9¢ / 100.0¢	$104 (103.9%)	$100 · 1	$204 · 1	$0	Jun 12, 2026 12:35 AM
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026? WonYesPolitics	87.8¢ / 100.0¢	$69.8 (10.0%)	$701 · 3	$258 · 1	$0	Apr 5, 2026 4:03 PM
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? WonYesPolitics	90.4¢ / 100.0¢	$52.9 (10.6%)	$500 · 2	$0	$0	Apr 11, 2026 7:34 AM
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? WonYesPolitics	92.8¢ / 100.0¢	$32 (4.2%)	$759 · 2	$791 · 2	$0	Apr 9, 2026 4:42 AM
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Mar… WonYesCulture	84.7¢ / 100.0¢	$25 (18.0%)	$139 · 2	$0	$0	Mar 24, 2026 9:06 PM
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? WonYesPolitics	85.6¢ / 100.0¢	$16.2 (16.2%)	$100 · 1	$116 · 1	$0	Jun 18, 2026 12:35 AM
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? WonNoPolitics	80.0¢ / 100.0¢	$11.2 (1.5%)	$760 · 4	$771 · 5	$0	Jul 1, 2026 6:10 AM
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? WonYesPolitics	82.7¢ / 100.0¢	$10.4 (20.8%)	$50 · 1	$60.4 · 1	$0	Jun 21, 2026 1:35 PM
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29? WonYesWeather	83.1¢ / 100.0¢	$8.4 (16.8%)	$50 · 2	$58.4 · 3	$0	Mar 30, 2026 12:17 AM
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? WonYesPolitics	80.0¢ / 100.0¢	$7.05 (23.5%)	$30 · 1	$37 · 1	$0	Mar 26, 2026 12:36 AM
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) WonYesMentions	59.7¢ / 100.0¢	$6.1 (34.1%)	$17.9 · 1	$24 · 1	$0	Apr 1, 2026 12:28 AM
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? WonNoPolitics	80.9¢ / 100.0¢	$5.6 (13.8%)	$40.7 · 2	$46.3 · 1	$0	Apr 3, 2026 10:10 AM
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? WonYesPolitics	47.0¢ / 0.0¢	$5.1 (17.0%)	$30 · 1	$35.1 · 1	$0	Jun 16, 2026 6:05 AM
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? WonYesPolitics	32.0¢ / 38.0¢	$5 (15.6%)	$32 · 2	$37 · 1	$0	Jul 24, 2026 10:05 AM
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? WonYesTech	88.2¢ / 100.0¢	$4.19 (13.4%)	$31.3 · 1	$0	$0	Mar 10, 2026 7:37 PM
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? WonYesPolitics	83.2¢ / 100.0¢	$4.05 (20.3%)	$20 · 1	$0	$0	Mar 9, 2026 12:14 AM
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? WonNoPolitics	83.9¢ / 87.0¢	$3.67 (3.7%)	$100 · 1	$104 · 1	$0	Jul 1, 2026 6:59 PM
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? WonNoPolitics	89.9¢ / 100.0¢	$3.04 (11.0%)	$27.6 · 1	$30.6 · 1	$0	Mar 16, 2026 6:26 AM
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? WonYesSports	91.4¢ / 100.0¢	$2.83 (9.4%)	$30 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 14, 2026 11:03 PM
US forces enter Iran by March 14? WonNoPolitics	91.4¢ / 100.0¢	$2.71 (8.2%)	$33 · 2	$35.7 · 1	$0	Mar 15, 2026 7:09 AM
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? WonNoPolitics	89.0¢ / 100.0¢	$2.58 (10.3%)	$25 · 1	$27.6 · 1	$0	Mar 12, 2026 12:46 AM
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 29? WonYesWeather	79.0¢ / 100.0¢	$2.44 (24.4%)	$10 · 1	$12.4 · 1	$0	Mar 30, 2026 1:20 AM

					Merge
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31… YesFinance 31.99 shares	71.8¢ / 69.5¢	-$0.75 (-3.3%)	$22.7 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 31, 2026 2:59 AM

Market	Entry / Current	PnL	Buys	Sells	Merge	Last Active
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? WonNoPolitics	68.4¢ / 100.0¢	$143 (45.3%)	$316 · 5	$460 · 1	$0	Apr 5, 2026 2:00 AM
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? WonYesPolitics	79.6¢ / 100.0¢	$131 (25.0%)	$524 · 2	$655 · 1	$0	Apr 11, 2026 12:36 AM
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? WonNoPolitics	65.4¢ / 100.0¢	$125 (47.1%)	$265 · 6	$390 · 2	$0	Mar 30, 2026 7:28 AM
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? WonYesPolitics	48.9¢ / 100.0¢	$104 (103.9%)	$100 · 1	$204 · 1	$0	Jun 12, 2026 12:35 AM
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026? WonYesPolitics	87.8¢ / 100.0¢	$69.8 (10.0%)	$701 · 3	$258 · 1	$0	Apr 5, 2026 4:03 PM
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? WonYesPolitics	90.4¢ / 100.0¢	$52.9 (10.6%)	$500 · 2	$0	$0	Apr 11, 2026 7:34 AM
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? WonYesPolitics	92.8¢ / 100.0¢	$32 (4.2%)	$759 · 2	$791 · 2	$0	Apr 9, 2026 4:42 AM
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Mar… WonYesCulture	84.7¢ / 100.0¢	$25 (18.0%)	$139 · 2	$0	$0	Mar 24, 2026 9:06 PM
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? WonYesPolitics	85.6¢ / 100.0¢	$16.2 (16.2%)	$100 · 1	$116 · 1	$0	Jun 18, 2026 12:35 AM
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? WonNoPolitics	80.0¢ / 100.0¢	$11.2 (1.5%)	$760 · 4	$771 · 5	$0	Jul 1, 2026 6:10 AM
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? WonYesPolitics	82.7¢ / 100.0¢	$10.4 (20.8%)	$50 · 1	$60.4 · 1	$0	Jun 21, 2026 1:35 PM
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29? WonYesWeather	83.1¢ / 100.0¢	$8.4 (16.8%)	$50 · 2	$58.4 · 3	$0	Mar 30, 2026 12:17 AM
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? WonYesPolitics	80.0¢ / 100.0¢	$7.05 (23.5%)	$30 · 1	$37 · 1	$0	Mar 26, 2026 12:36 AM
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) WonYesMentions	59.7¢ / 100.0¢	$6.1 (34.1%)	$17.9 · 1	$24 · 1	$0	Apr 1, 2026 12:28 AM
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? WonNoPolitics	80.9¢ / 100.0¢	$5.6 (13.8%)	$40.7 · 2	$46.3 · 1	$0	Apr 3, 2026 10:10 AM
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? WonYesPolitics	47.0¢ / 0.0¢	$5.1 (17.0%)	$30 · 1	$35.1 · 1	$0	Jun 16, 2026 6:05 AM
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? WonYesPolitics	32.0¢ / 38.0¢	$5 (15.6%)	$32 · 2	$37 · 1	$0	Jul 24, 2026 10:05 AM
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? WonYesTech	88.2¢ / 100.0¢	$4.19 (13.4%)	$31.3 · 1	$0	$0	Mar 10, 2026 7:37 PM
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? WonYesPolitics	83.2¢ / 100.0¢	$4.05 (20.3%)	$20 · 1	$0	$0	Mar 9, 2026 12:14 AM
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? WonNoPolitics	83.9¢ / 87.0¢	$3.67 (3.7%)	$100 · 1	$104 · 1	$0	Jul 1, 2026 6:59 PM
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? WonNoPolitics	89.9¢ / 100.0¢	$3.04 (11.0%)	$27.6 · 1	$30.6 · 1	$0	Mar 16, 2026 6:26 AM
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? WonYesSports	91.4¢ / 100.0¢	$2.83 (9.4%)	$30 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 14, 2026 11:03 PM
US forces enter Iran by March 14? WonNoPolitics	91.4¢ / 100.0¢	$2.71 (8.2%)	$33 · 2	$35.7 · 1	$0	Mar 15, 2026 7:09 AM
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? WonNoPolitics	89.0¢ / 100.0¢	$2.58 (10.3%)	$25 · 1	$27.6 · 1	$0	Mar 12, 2026 12:46 AM
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 29? WonYesWeather	79.0¢ / 100.0¢	$2.44 (24.4%)	$10 · 1	$12.4 · 1	$0	Mar 30, 2026 1:20 AM

THEBABAYAGA Polymarket Trader

PnL Calendar

July 2026

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

1-$9.07

Jul 1, 2026

Daily PnL

-$9.07

Open-$189

High-$185

Low-$198

Close-$198

Open positions2

USD balance$1.37

2$2.45

Jul 2, 2026

Daily PnL

$2.45

Open-$198

High-$193

Low-$202

Close-$195

Open positions2

USD balance$1.37

3$2.2

Jul 3, 2026

Daily PnL

$2.2

Open-$195

High-$193

Low-$207

Close-$193

Open positions2

USD balance$1.37

4$3.1

Jul 4, 2026

Daily PnL

$3.1

Open-$193

High-$184

Low-$206

Close-$190

Open positions2

USD balance$1.37

5-$13.2

Jul 5, 2026

Daily PnL

-$13.2

Open-$190

High-$189

Low-$207

Close-$203

Open positions2

USD balance$1.37

6$0.04

Jul 6, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.04

Open-$203

High-$196

Low-$209

Close-$203

Open positions2

USD balance$1.37

7$0.68

Jul 7, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.68

Open-$203

High-$198

Low-$209

Close-$202

Open positions2

USD balance$2.41

8-$3.4

Jul 8, 2026

Daily PnL

-$3.4

Open-$202

High-$201

Low-$208

Close-$206

Open positions2

USD balance$2.41

9$25.3

Jul 9, 2026

Daily PnL

$25.3

Open-$206

High-$178

Low-$213

Close-$180

Open positions2

USD balance$2.41

10-$9.64

Jul 10, 2026

Daily PnL

-$9.64

Open-$180

High-$177

Low-$194

Close-$190

Open positions2

USD balance$2.41

11$6.71

Jul 11, 2026

Daily PnL

$6.71

Open-$190

High-$180

Low-$194

Close-$183

Open positions2

USD balance$0

12$2.28

Jul 12, 2026

Daily PnL

$2.28

Open-$183

High-$179

Low-$192

Close-$181

Open positions2

USD balance$0

13-$6.51

Jul 13, 2026

Daily PnL

-$6.51

Open-$181

High-$179

Low-$190

Close-$188

Open positions2

USD balance$0

14-$102

Jul 14, 2026

Daily PnL

-$102

Open-$188

High-$179

Low-$292

Close-$289

Open positions1

USD balance$33.3

15-$10.4

Jul 15, 2026

Daily PnL

-$10.4

Open-$289

High-$285

Low-$300

Close-$300

Open positions1

USD balance$23

16$2

Jul 16, 2026

Daily PnL

Open-$300

High-$294

Low-$301

Close-$298

Open positions1

USD balance$23

17-$2

Jul 17, 2026

Daily PnL

-$2

Open-$298

High-$297

Low-$300

Close-$300

Open positions1

USD balance$0

18-$1

Jul 18, 2026

Daily PnL

-$1

Open-$300

High-$298

Low-$302

Close-$301

Open positions1

USD balance$0

19$2

Jul 19, 2026

Daily PnL

Open-$301

High-$297

Low-$301

Close-$299

Open positions1

USD balance$0

20-$0

Jul 20, 2026

Daily PnL

-$0

Open-$299

High-$298

Low-$301

Close-$299

Open positions1

USD balance$0

21$2.02

Jul 21, 2026

Daily PnL

$2.02

Open-$299

High-$295

Low-$299

Close-$297

Open positions2

USD balance$0.05

22$7.48

Jul 22, 2026

Daily PnL

$7.48

Open-$297

High-$289

Low-$298

Close-$289

Open positions2

USD balance$0.05

23-$0.68

Jul 23, 2026

Daily PnL

-$0.68

Open-$289

High-$289

Low-$293

Close-$290

Open positions2

USD balance$0.05

24-$7.08

Jul 24, 2026

Daily PnL

-$7.08

Open-$290

High-$290

Low-$298

Close-$297

Open positions1

USD balance$0

25$1.92

Jul 25, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.92

Open-$297

High-$295

Low-$298

Close-$295

Open positions1

USD balance$0

26$0.96

Jul 26, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.96

Open-$295

High-$294

Low-$296

Close-$294

Open positions1

USD balance$0

27-$16.6

Jul 27, 2026

Daily PnL

-$16.6

Open-$294

High-$294

Low-$314

Close-$311

Open positions1

USD balance$0

28-$2.51

Jul 28, 2026

Daily PnL

-$2.51

Open-$311

High-$310

Low-$315

Close-$313

Open positions1

USD balance$0

29-$4.66

Jul 29, 2026

Daily PnL

-$4.66

Open-$313

High-$311

Low-$318

Close-$318

Open positions1

USD balance$0

30$21.6

Jul 30, 2026

Daily PnL

$21.6

Open-$318

High-$293

Low-$319

Close-$296

Open positions1

USD balance$0

31-$1.25

Jul 31, 2026

Daily PnL

-$1.25

Open-$296

High-$294

Low-$298

Close-$297

Open positions1

USD balance$0

Performance Summary

PnL Change

1D $19.47D -$5.4730D -$102

Markets

Won

Lost

Win Rate

57.7%

Profit Factor

0.73x

Avg Win

$25.5

Avg Loss

-$47.4

Total Wins

$765

Total Losses

-$1.04K

Avg. Hold Time

12d 7h 12m 1s

Best Win

$143

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?

Worst Loss

-$724

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

Period

Best Period

$266, Apr 2 – Apr 8

Worst Period

-$694, Apr 9 – Apr 15

Longest Streak

5d W / 4d L

Current Streak

1d L

Max Drawdown

-$790 (-167.3%)

Current DD

-$770 (-163.0%)

Max Runup

$504 (1583.9%)

Rebates

Rewards

Yield

THEBABAYAGA

Analytics

Analytics

THEBABAYAGA

THEBABAYAGA

Analytics

Volume (USD)

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Notional volume

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Volume

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Notional volume

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Analytics

Volume (USD)

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Notional volume

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

THEBABAYAGA

Trader DNA

Trader DNA