Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$11K
Txns
581
Traders
141
Fees
$8
Liquidity
$9,113
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$11K
Txns
581
Traders
141
Fees
$8
Liquidity
$9,113
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.15Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 85%$1.82Mvolume
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
No 82%$59.3Kvolume
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Yes 83%$51.5Kvolume
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 100%$634Kvolume
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
No 96%$225Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32m | iliabouchouev | No / 99.2¢ | -3.85 | $3.82 | |
| 32m | miya2016 | No / 99.2¢ | +3.85 | $3.82 | |
| 5h | trader-x42 | No / 99.3¢ | +2.70 | $2.68 | |
| 5h | bmtr | No / 99.3¢ | -2.70 | $2.68 | |
| 5h | bmtr | No / 99.3¢ | -1.01 | $1 | |
| 5h | 0xff09...ff25ab | No / 99.3¢ | +1.01 | $1 | |
| 5h | 0x4978...eca5b2 | No / 99.3¢ | +1.01 | $1 | |
| 5h | bmtr | No / 99.3¢ | -1.01 | $1 | |
| 5h | elmcap2 | No / 99.0¢ | +8.79 | $8.7 | |
| 5h | 53asdad | Yes / 0.9¢ | -0.07 | $0 | |
| 5h | HLucaY | No / 99.0¢ | -8.86 | $8.77 | |
| 7h | tewas | No / 99.3¢ | +1.29 | $1.28 | |
| 7h | bmtr | No / 99.3¢ | -1.29 | $1.28 | |
| 8h | Jjw | No / 99.1¢ | -143.53 | $142 | |
| 8h | 53asdad | Yes / 0.9¢ | -11.00 | $0.1 | |
| 8h | 53asdad | Yes / 0.9¢ | -127.00 | $1.14 | |
| 8h | 53asdad | Yes / 0.9¢ | -5.53 | $0.05 | |
| 15h | Jjw | No / 99.3¢ | -24.47 | $24.3 | |
| 15h | HerrieDavis | Yes / 0.7¢ | -17.19 | $0.12 | |
| 15h | 53asdad | Yes / 0.7¢ | -7.28 | $0.05 | |
| 1d | Elias.Thornwell | No / 99.4¢ | +5.00 | $4.97 | |
| 1d | bmtr | No / 99.4¢ | -5.00 | $4.97 | |
| 1d | HerrieDavis | Yes / 0.7¢ | -2.01 | $0.01 | |
| 1d | 0x3d0a...c20450 | No / 98.3¢ | -2.01 | $1.98 | |
| 1d | bmtr | No / 99.3¢ | -10.07 | $10 |
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