Will the vote to oust McCarthy have a margin of less than 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first vote after this market's inception to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy from his position as Speaker of the House has a margin of fewer than 15 voting representatives. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the first vote to vacate the Speaker position that occurs by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no vote to remove McCarthy by then, this market will resolve to "No". The margin will be determined by the absolute difference between the number of "Yea" votes and "Nay" votes, as documented in official records or announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives (e.g. if 130 vote Yea, 160 vote Nay, and rest abstain, the absolute difference is |130 - 160| = 30). Note: The margin relevant for this market is the absolute difference, and thus always positive (regardless of outcome). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.