Will the US strike ≤3 countries in January 2026?

This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will not qualify, regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. Markets may resolve to "No" as soon as strikes on more than the specified amount of different sovereign UN member states' soil have been confirmed. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the US at the time of market creation will not be counted toward this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.