Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.