Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Afghanistan between June 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Afghanistan or the United States as of June 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.