
Volume
$2K
Txns
58
Traders
27
Fees
$14
Liquidity
$465
Ends
Aug 12, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Reykjavík Airport (stationID:BIRK) METAR observation at 18:00 UTC on August 12, 2026 reports a Cloud Coverage Level 1 (skyc1) value of SKC, CLR, FEW, or SCT. This market will resolve to "No" if that observation reports BKN, OVC, or VV, or are missing after applying the rules listed below. If the 18:00 UTC BIRK observation is missing or not reported within 24 hours, the 17:00 UTC BIRK observation will be used instead or, if it is also missing, the 19:00 UTC BIRK observation will be used. If both are missing, this market will resolve based on Keflavík International Airport's (stationID:BIKF) observations using the same time hierarchy. The primary resolution source is the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) ASOS archive (mesonet.agron.iastate.edu), routine hourly reports only, skyc1 field. The raw METAR text of the qualifying observation governs in the event of any discrepancy in the parsed CSV field. This market cannot resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. Revisions to the cloud coverage recorded by the resolution source will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. At the time of the launch of this market, a CSV file that will update with the relevant observations can be found here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?network=IS__ASOS&station=BIRK&data=skyc1&year1=2026&month1=8&day1=12&year2=2026&month2=8&day2=12&tz=Etc%2FUTC&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&elev=no&missing=M&trace=T&direct=no&report_type=3&report_type=4
Trades
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
Yes 58%$0volume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 95%$0volume
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
No 74%$0volume
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
Yes 65%$0volume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m squar…
No 76%$0volume
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95…
Yes 100%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | vino1234 | No / 59.0¢ | -50.00 | $29.5 | |
| 3d | Beubeu | Yes / 40.0¢ | -50.00 | $20 | |
| 3d | vino1234 | No / 69.2¢ | -165.71 | $115 | |
| 3d | WGainfulInsight | Yes / 30.0¢ | -73.87 | $22.2 | |
| 3d | AllyouneedisClaude | Yes / 30.0¢ | -91.84 | $27.6 | |
| 3d | 0xa14b...be05e4 | No / 39.0¢ | -86.96 | $33.9 | |
| 3d | Beubeu | Yes / 60.0¢ | +50.00 | $30 | |
| 3d | pootytherewardfarmer | No / 40.0¢ | -39.00 | $15.6 | |
| 3d | SOLIQUID | No / 39.0¢ | -57.58 | $22.5 | |
| 3d | vino1234 | No / 39.3¢ | +295.54 | $119 | |
| 3d | smlptm | No / 39.0¢ | -32.00 | $12.5 | |
| 3d | LornaPredicts | Yes / 61.0¢ | +20.00 | $12.2 | |
| 3d | Mojito9 | Yes / 61.0¢ | +10.00 | $6.1 | |
| 3d | fmas | Yes / 62.1¢ | -39.86 | $24.7 | |
| 3d | PPMT | Yes / 63.0¢ | +18.67 | $11.8 | |
| 3d | return-of-the-king | No / 37.0¢ | -21.19 | $7.84 | |
| 3d | PPMT | Yes / 63.0¢ | +8.08 | $5.09 | |
| 3d | morksma | Yes / 62.1¢ | -39.27 | $24.4 | |
| 3d | return-of-the-king | No / 37.0¢ | -31.19 | $11.5 | |
| 3d | 0xa14b...be05e4 | Yes / 59.0¢ | +28.04 | $16.5 | |
| 3d | Fluakka | Yes / 58.0¢ | -28.04 | $16.3 | |
| 3d | skybuyer24 | No / 41.0¢ | -20.00 | $8.2 | |
| 3d | Margo078 | Yes / 58.0¢ | -20.00 | $11.6 | |
| 3d | WGainfulInsight | Yes / 81.0¢ | +73.87 | $59.8 | |
| 3d | Margo078 | Yes / 82.0¢ | +20.00 | $16.4 |
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