Volume
$850
Txns
52
Traders
19
Fees
$7
Liquidity
$443
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Trades
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 99%$0volume
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
No 64%$0volume
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?
No 86%$0volume
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
No 86%$0volume
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
No 77%$0volume
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
Yes 49%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | Olcan | Yes / 38.0¢ | -3.26 | $1.24 | |
| 4h | Mojito9 | Yes / 39.0¢ | +3.26 | $1.27 | |
| 4h | winexecutescale | Yes / 35.0¢ | +16.00 | $5.6 | |
| 4h | Olcan | No / 65.0¢ | +16.00 | $10.5 | |
| 4h | Olcan | No / 56.0¢ | +6.68 | $3.81 | |
| 4h | AJSV | Yes / 44.0¢ | +6.68 | $2.94 | |
| 8h | AiBird | Yes / 63.1¢ | -51.00 | $32.2 | |
| 8h | AMAM13 | Yes / 64.0¢ | +51.00 | $32.6 | |
| 8h | richardd | Yes / 34.0¢ | -3.94 | $1.34 | |
| 8h | Olcan | Yes / 36.5¢ | +25.94 | $9.72 | |
| 8h | AiBird | Yes / 37.0¢ | -22.00 | $8.14 | |
| 8h | richardd | Yes / 34.0¢ | -18.06 | $6.14 | |
| 8h | AJSV | Yes / 34.0¢ | +18.06 | $6.3 | |
| 8h | AJSV | Yes / 34.0¢ | +22.00 | $7.68 | |
| 8h | AiBird | Yes / 34.0¢ | -22.00 | $7.48 | |
| 8h | richardd | Yes / 29.0¢ | +22.00 | $6.56 | |
| 8h | AiBird | Yes / 29.0¢ | -22.00 | $6.38 | |
| 8h | 0x34a9...d74cfd | No / 69.0¢ | +15.66 | $10.8 | |
| 8h | AJSV | Yes / 31.0¢ | +15.66 | $4.99 | |
| 8h | AiBird | Yes / 12.5¢ | +112.50 | $14.6 | |
| 8h | billygod | Yes / 12.0¢ | -52.50 | $6.3 | |
| 8h | Laribobibo | Yes / 11.0¢ | -20.00 | $2.2 | |
| 8h | sakura11 | No / 86.0¢ | +20.00 | $17.2 | |
| 8h | guo-rich | No / 86.0¢ | +20.00 | $17.2 | |
| 9h | guo-rich | No / 68.0¢ | -20.00 | $13.6 |
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