
Volume
$74
Txns
23
Traders
11
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$175
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Trades
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?
Yes 100% · $379K volume
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100% · $832K volume
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100% · $1M volume
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100% · $993K volume
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
No 99% · $212K volume
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
No 100% · $163K volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h | Mojito9 | Yes / 17.0¢ | -5.15 | $0.88 | |
| 5h | 0x63ab...3da526 | Yes / 17.1¢ | +5.12 | $0.88 | |
| 7h | gyhs9bkybhy | Yes / 4.0¢ | +17.80 | $0.71 | |
| 7h | X1099 | Yes / 3.8¢ | -17.80 | $0.68 | |
| 7h | X1099 | Yes / 5.0¢ | +10.31 | $0.52 | |
| 7h | melchior1248 | No / 95.2¢ | +10.29 | $9.79 | |
| 18h | X1099 | Yes / 3.0¢ | +2.50 | $0.07 | |
| 18h | e46m3 | No / 97.1¢ | +2.50 | $2.42 | |
| 18h | AJSV | Yes / 4.0¢ | +3.37 | $0.13 | |
| 18h | e46m3 | No / 96.1¢ | +3.36 | $3.24 | |
| 18h | AJSV | Yes / 4.0¢ | +6.63 | $0.27 | |
| 18h | pd.unique | No / 96.1¢ | +6.62 | $6.36 | |
| 22h | X1099 | Yes / 7.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.35 | |
| 22h | cry.eth2 | Yes / 6.7¢ | -5.00 | $0.34 | |
| 4d | AJSV | Yes / 5.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.25 | |
| 4d | cry.eth2 | Yes / 4.8¢ | -5.00 | $0.24 | |
| 4d | AJSV | Yes / 2.0¢ | +16.18 | $0.32 | |
| 4d | aHjCz | No / 98.1¢ | +16.17 | $15.9 | |
| 5d | AJSV | Yes / 6.0¢ | +16.67 | $1 | |
| 5d | Mojito9 | Yes / 6.0¢ | +7.39 | $0.44 | |
| 5d | melchior1248 | No / 94.0¢ | +24.01 | $22.6 | |
| 6d | AJSV | Yes / 6.0¢ | +6.15 | $0.37 | |
| 6d | daniel122134 | No / 94.0¢ | +6.14 | $5.78 |
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