Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
ResolvedVolume
$251K
Txns
2,172
Traders
567
Fees
$0
Ends
Jun 30, 2025
Volume
$251K
Txns
2,172
Traders
567
Fees
$0
Ends
Jun 30, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/. Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11mo | Evador | Yes / 0.4¢ | -0.57 | $0 | |
| 11mo | Wesrtyefe | No / 99.6¢ | -0.57 | $0.57 | |
| 11mo | Haradwaith | Yes / 0.1¢ | -100.10 | $0.1 | |
| 11mo | Slowroasted | No / 99.9¢ | -100.10 | $100 | |
| 11mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 11mo | bestfriends | No / 99.9¢ | +5,531.97 | $5.53K | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +12.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +130.00 | $0.13 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0xf8b7...2114de | Yes / 0.1¢ | +7.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +6.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +6.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +11.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0xf8b7...2114de | Yes / 0.1¢ | +105.00 | $0.1 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +7.00 | $0.01 | |
| 11mo | xinba | Yes / 0.1¢ | +350.00 | $0.35 |
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