Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$19K
Txns
563
Traders
156
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$5,792
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$19K
Txns
563
Traders
156
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$5,792
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h | AlvisLi-FutureTopInvestor | No / 99.1¢ | -1.02 | $1.01 | |
| 10h | Biver52 | Yes / 0.9¢ | -1.02 | $0.01 | |
| 16h | rqrqdo | No / 99.5¢ | +1.19 | $1.18 | |
| 16h | Wojtek | Yes / 0.5¢ | +1.19 | $0.01 | |
| 1d | Olka | Yes / 0.5¢ | +200.00 | $1 | |
| 1d | Olka | Yes / 0.7¢ | +150.00 | $1.05 | |
| 1d | thecaricature | Yes / 0.7¢ | +20.00 | $0.14 | |
| 1d | obamaosama | Yes / 0.6¢ | -429.82 | $2.39 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 0.5¢ | +59.82 | $0.3 | |
| 1d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.0¢ | +141.00 | $1.41 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +600.98 | $6.01 | |
| 1d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.0¢ | +141.00 | $1.41 | |
| 1d | enrico-vasaio | No / 99.0¢ | +882.98 | $874 | |
| 1d | bxcww | No / 98.8¢ | +1.18 | $1.17 | |
| 1d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 1.2¢ | +1.18 | $0.01 | |
| 2d | 53asdad | Yes / 1.4¢ | -24.20 | $0.34 | |
| 2d | Olka | Yes / 1.5¢ | -100.00 | $1.5 | |
| 2d | 53asdad | Yes / 1.4¢ | -12.00 | $0.17 | |
| 2d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.5¢ | -66.21 | $0.99 | |
| 2d | 0x6B117D25E1A34910D2A7d0d7db9f38f93a685c80-1770085312071 | Yes / 1.5¢ | +202.41 | $3.12 | |
| 3d | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +257.85 | $2.58 | |
| 3d | norbika | Yes / 1.0¢ | -257.85 | $2.48 | |
| 3d | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +44.34 | $0.44 | |
| 3d | xiaokai666 | Yes / 1.0¢ | -44.34 | $0.43 | |
| 3d | norbika | Yes / 1.6¢ | +91.80 | $1.47 |
1–25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.16Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 87%$1.84Mvolume
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
No 76%$63.2Kvolume
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Yes 79%$55.8Kvolume
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 100%$640Kvolume
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$2.85Mvolume