Will Kevin McCarthy be elected Speaker of the House in the 118th Congress?

The midterm US elections scheduled for November 8, 2022, are expected to be contentious, with a strong possibility of the Republicans taking the House and Senate. If the Republicans take the US House of Representatives, the present Speaker of the House, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, may be replaced by the Republican who wins a roll call election held by House members. The 2022 midterm federal election is scheduled for November 8, 2022. The 118th Congress is scheduled to be sworn in on January 3, 2023. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Member of the US House of Representatives from California Kevin McCarthy becomes the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any individual elected to be, appointed to be, or serving as Speaker pro tempore in the 118th congress will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only the first-elected Speaker of the House will count toward the resolution of this market. If the election for the first Speaker for the 118th Congress is not finalized by March 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America (ex: https://www.speaker.gov/, https://www.house.gov/), however credible reporting may be used.