Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?

The runoff for the Polish presidential election is scheduled for June 1, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Polish Presidential Election runoff. For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Polish Presidential Election runoff. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the votes count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2025 ET, or if the runoff is permanently canceled, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Polish Government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).