Will Ihor Obolienskyi be appointed as the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2026?

On February 8, 2024, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Oleksandr Syrskyi as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by presidential decree. This market concerns the first successor appointed after Syrskyi. This market will resolve according to the next individual whom the President of Ukraine appoints by presidential decree as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. A qualifying appointment will be considered to have occurred when a presidential decree appointing the individual as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is issued. A public statement, media report, expression of intent, informal announcement, or appointment of an individual to perform the Commander-in-Chief’s duties on an acting basis will not qualify. A separate decree dismissing Oleksandr Syrskyi, or evidence that the appointee has assumed the position, will not be required for the appointment to qualify. If no individual is appointed by presidential decree by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Kyiv time, this market will resolve to “No change.” If the first qualifying appointee is not included among the listed outcomes, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and presidential decrees from the President of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.