
Volume
$360
Txns
75
Traders
28
Fees
$0
Ends
Apr 17, 2026
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Trades
1–25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.45Mvolume
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
Yes 60%$200Kvolume
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
No 93%$111Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 90%$2.03Mvolume
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Yes 60%$68.6Kvolume
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 97%$904Kvolume