
Volume
$7M
Txns
54,931
Traders
5,187
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
No 99%$2.99Mvolume
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?
No 100%$9.54Kvolume
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
No 80%$19.4Kvolume
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?
No 100%$11.8Kvolume
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
No 100%$10.3Kvolume
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 82%$21.5Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2mo | weaklei | No / 99.9¢ | +302.00 | $302 | |
| 2mo | Secondhandvinyl | No / 99.9¢ | +20.00 | $20 | |
| 2mo | frosique1 | No / 99.9¢ | -322.00 | $322 | |
| 2mo | 5273853 | No / 99.9¢ | +93.00 | $92.9 | |
| 2mo | Secondhandvinyl | No / 99.9¢ | +20.00 | $20 | |
| 2mo | triklozoid | Yes / 0.1¢ | -30.00 | $0.03 | |
| 2mo | 0x4E75B91fb06288B0A005CDBE6679c5Daf315C2D8-1772395610988 | No / 99.9¢ | -143.00 | $143 | |
| 2mo | ffgglu | No / 99.9¢ | -6.17 | $6.16 | |
| 2mo | FlyingPlaty | No / 99.9¢ | +6.17 | $6.16 | |
| 2mo | FlyingPlaty | No / 99.9¢ | +1.10 | $1.1 | |
| 2mo | Mathys972.2 | No / 99.9¢ | -1.10 | $1.1 | |
| 2mo | 0xd3De5841D93c211EeDA91628127e84FED4B4FE0e-1770165147778 | No / 99.9¢ | -6.98 | $6.97 | |
| 2mo | FlyingPlaty | No / 99.9¢ | +6.98 | $6.97 | |
| 2mo | 2117 | No / 99.9¢ | -4,196.60 | $4.19K | |
| 2mo | Secondhandvinyl | No / 99.9¢ | +20.00 | $20 | |
| 2mo | FlyingPlaty | No / 99.9¢ | +3,175.40 | $3.17K | |
| 2mo | morilun | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,001.20 | $1 | |
| 2mo | morilun | Yes / 0.1¢ | -3.25 | $0 | |
| 2mo | 0x8b03...a390a7 | No / 99.9¢ | -3.25 | $3.25 | |
| 2mo | morilun | Yes / 0.1¢ | -25.21 | $0.03 | |
| 2mo | Chuggo1 | No / 99.9¢ | -25.21 | $25.2 | |
| 2mo | morilun | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1.29 | $0 | |
| 2mo | 0x3490...10e792 | No / 99.9¢ | -1.29 | $1.29 | |
| 2mo | 0x141c...78ae86 | No / 99.9¢ | -2.69 | $2.69 | |
| 2mo | morilun | Yes / 0.1¢ | -2.69 | $0 |
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