
Volume
$335K
Txns
4,343
Traders
796
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$948
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9h | 0x9E369630B26263e45E6C9670Ed0a19c002eB508F-1773584159687 | No / 73.2¢ | +6.00 | $4.39 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 26.0¢ | +1.00 | $0.26 | |
| 9h | tytryrt | No / 73.0¢ | -5.00 | $3.65 | |
| 21h | tiger555 | Yes / 28.5¢ | -20.00 | $5.7 | |
| 21h | 0xD0dE2a3d9E11573bDFc6EBa6e93053e29C9f370D-1778914097513 | Yes / 29.0¢ | +10.00 | $2.9 | |
| 21h | 0xD0dE2a3d9E11573bDFc6EBa6e93053e29C9f370D-1778914097513 | Yes / 28.0¢ | +10.00 | $2.8 | |
| 1d | shidemi | Yes / 28.0¢ | -3.03 | $0.85 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 28.0¢ | +3.03 | $0.85 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 30.0¢ | -6.69 | $2.01 | |
| 1d | moneylong26 | No / 70.0¢ | -6.69 | $4.68 | |
| 1d | MiniElTigre | No / 70.0¢ | -1.05 | $0.73 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 30.0¢ | -1.05 | $0.32 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 30.0¢ | -5.07 | $1.52 | |
| 1d | HendekaBet | No / 70.0¢ | -5.07 | $3.55 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 30.0¢ | +5.08 | $1.52 | |
| 1d | HendekaBet | No / 70.0¢ | +5.08 | $3.56 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 29.0¢ | +30.00 | $8.7 | |
| 1d | Lavincey | No / 71.0¢ | +30.00 | $21.3 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 31.0¢ | +35.08 | $10.9 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 32.0¢ | +35.08 | $11.2 | |
| 1d | RandomWalker3 | No / 71.2¢ | +140.44 | $100 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 29.0¢ | +13.74 | $3.98 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 27.0¢ | +33.80 | $9.13 | |
| 1d | MiniElTigre | No / 77.0¢ | -22.74 | $17.5 | |
| 1d | tiger555 | Yes / 33.0¢ | +35.08 | $11.6 |
1–25
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Yes 53%$34.3Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.8Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 78%$212Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
No 74%$3.14Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
No 92%$798volume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
No 92%$1.39Kvolume