
Volume
$337K
Txns
4,654
Traders
858
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$2,895
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ox7a8Fe7b6934c1B5CdA555FBD5731a57E2683D9ee | No / 77.0¢ | -1.00 | $0.77 | |
| 1d | buoys | No / 77.0¢ | +1.00 | $0.77 | |
| 1d | buoys | No / 77.0¢ | +13.07 | $10.1 | |
| 1d | 0x30d5...152ce3 | No / 76.2¢ | -13.07 | $9.96 | |
| 2d | tiger555 | Yes / 22.0¢ | +1.28 | $0.28 | |
| 2d | one123 | No / 78.0¢ | +1.28 | $1 | |
| 2d | tiger555 | Yes / 22.0¢ | +8.60 | $1.89 | |
| 2d | 0xa0dd...675527 | Yes / 21.8¢ | -8.60 | $1.87 | |
| 2d | 0xa0dd...675527 | Yes / 23.0¢ | +8.61 | $2 | |
| 2d | buoys | No / 77.0¢ | +8.61 | $6.63 | |
| 3d | tiger555 | Yes / 22.0¢ | +5.11 | $1.12 | |
| 3d | jasonfentman | Yes / 22.0¢ | -5.11 | $1.12 | |
| 3d | tiger555 | Yes / 23.0¢ | -17.08 | $3.93 | |
| 3d | 0xf0cd...2cc997 | Yes / 23.0¢ | +65.09 | $15 | |
| 3d | buoys | No / 77.0¢ | +48.01 | $37 | |
| 3d | tiger555 | Yes / 23.0¢ | -5.00 | $1.15 | |
| 3d | 0x46a4DC5a8Fc5000Dc9D4A6B1Cc9a5242681300b1-1772569804702 | Yes / 23.0¢ | +5.00 | $1.15 | |
| 4d | tiger555 | Yes / 23.0¢ | -13.00 | $2.99 | |
| 4d | 338383833 | Yes / 23.0¢ | +13.00 | $2.99 | |
| 4d | tiger555 | Yes / 22.0¢ | +7.96 | $1.75 | |
| 4d | jasonfentman | Yes / 22.0¢ | +5.12 | $1.13 | |
| 4d | 0x30d5...152ce3 | No / 78.0¢ | +13.08 | $10.3 | |
| 4d | tiger555 | Yes / 22.0¢ | +27.12 | $5.97 | |
| 4d | 0xad99BFFCe03Cc56AC1b697aC15a173700E54dBaB-1770744877347 | No / 78.0¢ | -5.71 | $4.45 | |
| 4d | jasonfentman | Yes / 22.0¢ | -32.83 | $7.22 |
1–25
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
Yes 58%$0volume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 95%$0volume
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Yes 56%$0volume
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95…
Yes 100%$0volume
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in August be at least 9…
Yes 94%$0volume
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Yes 90%$0volume