Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
ActiveVolume
$18K
Txns
476
Traders
86
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$3,157
Ends
Volume
$18K
Txns
476
Traders
86
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$3,157
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17h | Haradwaith | Yes / 10.0¢ | -11.66 | $1.17 | |
| 17h | ultralisk | No / 90.0¢ | +20.00 | $18 | |
| 17h | purebaby | Yes / 10.0¢ | -8.34 | $0.83 | |
| 17h | no1biao | Yes / 10.0¢ | -10.00 | $1 | |
| 17h | rebate8784 | No / 89.6¢ | -50.00 | $44.8 | |
| 3d | AiBird | Yes / 9.0¢ | +1.95 | $0.18 | |
| 3d | KSIMASTER | No / 91.0¢ | +14.29 | $13 | |
| 3d | thecaricature | Yes / 9.0¢ | +12.34 | $1.11 | |
| 10d | nani | Yes / 9.2¢ | -16.00 | $1.47 | |
| 10d | purebaby | Yes / 10.0¢ | +8.34 | $0.83 | |
| 10d | thecaricature | Yes / 9.0¢ | +7.66 | $0.69 | |
| 10d | nani | Yes / 10.0¢ | +16.00 | $1.6 | |
| 10d | FFFF0857LP | Yes / 9.6¢ | -16.00 | $1.54 | |
| 16d | Bumblebee817 | Yes / 11.0¢ | +18.18 | $2.07 | |
| 16d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -18.18 | $2 | |
| 18d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -5.00 | $0.55 | |
| 18d | Talyxion | No / 88.6¢ | -5.00 | $4.43 | |
| 24d | 0xFBI | Yes / 11.0¢ | +100.00 | $11.4 | |
| 24d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -100.00 | $11 | |
| 24d | ultralisk | Yes / 10.0¢ | +20.00 | $2 | |
| 24d | nani | Yes / 9.6¢ | -36.71 | $3.54 | |
| 24d | FFFF0857LP | Yes / 10.0¢ | +16.71 | $1.67 | |
| 24d | 0x35bC4A415A5c89c7830D49c4873505be646EA8CC-1770175190660 | Yes / 9.6¢ | -56.71 | $5.47 | |
| 24d | nani | Yes / 10.0¢ | +36.71 | $3.67 | |
| 24d | thecaricature | Yes / 10.0¢ | +20.00 | $2 |
1–25
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Yes 59%$333Kvolume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 95%$3.25Mvolume
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$2.91Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 86%$1.9Mvolume
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
No 61%$110Kvolume
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 97%$833Kvolume