Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be less than 5%?

This market will resolve according to the first round ranked-choice voting (RCV) margin of victory for Andrew Cuomo in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, scheduled for June 24, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the first-round vote share received by Andrew Cuomo and the vote share received by the second-place candidate. First-round vote shares will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates received by the sum of all first round votes cast. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Andrew Cuomo does not receive the most first round votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified results of the first RCV round as published by the New York City Board of Elections. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.