
Volume
$586K
Txns
13,519
Traders
1,408
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Trades
1–25
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
Yes 100%$0volume
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
Yes 100%$0volume
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?
Yes 100%$0volume
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Yes 67%$0volume
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?
No 100%$0volume
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?
Yes 100%$0volume