
Volume
$49K
Txns
877
Traders
182
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 7, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an Iran-linked oil tanker between market creation and March 15, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker” refers to the seizure of any oil ship which is described by a consensus of credible sources as Iranian, Iran-linked, or as directly and regularly involved in the transportation of Iranian oil. A tanker’s limited prior transportation of Iranian oil, without such a qualifying description, will not alone qualify. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.
Trades
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Yes 100%$15.7Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
No 83%$28.9Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Yes 100%$7.13Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No 60%$27.1Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
No 98%$4.43Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 83%$20.8Mvolume
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