
Volume
$47K
Txns
592
Traders
130
Fees
$0
Ends
Jan 10, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and January 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trades
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
No 75%$34.1Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
No 100%$6.41Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 50%$28.6Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
No 95%$1.46Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No 99%$66.4Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
No 100%$7.94Mvolume