Pakistan strikes Kabul by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.