Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 25%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-25 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com