
Volume
$305K
Txns
2,422
Traders
655
Fees
$0
Ends
Sep 30, 2024
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between July 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | AgricultureSecretary | No / 99.9¢ | +204.90 | $205 | |
| 1y | LBZcapital | No / 99.9¢ | -204.90 | $205 | |
| 1y | LBZcapital | No / 99.9¢ | -0.09 | $0.09 | |
| 1y | quantumP2w | No / 99.9¢ | +0.09 | $0.09 | |
| 1y | LBZcapital | No / 99.5¢ | +30.00 | $29.9 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | Yes / 0.5¢ | +30.00 | $0.15 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | Yes / 0.4¢ | +6.00 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.4¢ | -6.00 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | RoaringValue | Yes / 0.5¢ | +80.00 | $0.4 | |
| 1y | LBZcapital | No / 99.5¢ | +80.00 | $79.6 | |
| 1y | kingsirpredictionconnoisseur | No / 99.9¢ | -1,694.29 | $1.69K | |
| 1y | LBZcapital | No / 99.9¢ | +1,694.29 | $1.69K | |
| 1y | Klein-Bottle-Capital-Management | No / 99.9¢ | +1,815.40 | $1.81K | |
| 1y | betfuture.eth | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,300.00 | $1.3 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.2¢ | +6.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +509.40 | $0.51 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | -5.31 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | 0x9020...247aa9 | No / 99.0¢ | -5.31 | $5.26 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | -2.12 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | 0x172a...bfb04b | No / 99.0¢ | -2.12 | $2.1 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.1¢ | -300.00 | $0.3 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +300.00 | $0.3 | |
| 1y | noemie | No / 99.9¢ | +1.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1.00 | $0 | |
| 1y | UncleSmurf | No / 99.8¢ | +300.00 | $299 |
1–25
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
No 99%$227Kvolume
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
No 100%$236Kvolume
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
Yes 100%$96.4Kvolume
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?
Yes 100%$45.2Kvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No 81%$123Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 98%$1.14Mvolume