
Volume
$3K
Txns
133
Traders
52
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$17,996
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No 53%$3.28Mvolume
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
No 79%$2.52Mvolume
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Yes 52%$364Kvolume
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
No 91%$979Kvolume
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
No 79%$499Kvolume
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
No 52%$139Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9h | qwer1413 | No / 78.0¢ | +136.36 | $106 | |
| 9h | arepita | Yes / 22.0¢ | +136.36 | $30 | |
| 1d | qwer1413 | No / 78.0¢ | +22.73 | $17.7 | |
| 1d | puntero11 | Yes / 22.0¢ | +22.73 | $5 | |
| 1d | Porx | No / 80.0¢ | -2.00 | $1.6 | |
| 1d | Assura | No / 80.0¢ | +2.00 | $1.6 | |
| 1d | Dr.PNL | No / 81.0¢ | -20.00 | $16.2 | |
| 1d | bartrader | Yes / 19.0¢ | -20.00 | $3.8 | |
| 2d | bartrader | Yes / 21.0¢ | +20.00 | $4.2 | |
| 2d | dropmeplease | Yes / 21.0¢ | +20.00 | $4.2 | |
| 2d | RogerFed | No / 79.0¢ | +40.00 | $31.6 | |
| 2d | patysaurus | Yes / 22.0¢ | +11.14 | $2.45 | |
| 2d | dropmeplease | No / 78.0¢ | +11.14 | $8.69 | |
| 2d | T0p0 | Yes / 23.0¢ | +50.00 | $11.5 | |
| 2d | Schnorrer | Yes / 23.0¢ | -18.00 | $4.14 | |
| 2d | Slackjaw | No / 77.0¢ | +20.00 | $15.4 | |
| 2d | bilibobz | Yes / 23.0¢ | -12.00 | $2.76 | |
| 3d | 0x9457...1f2733 | No / 73.0¢ | -20.00 | $14.6 | |
| 3d | keybo | Yes / 27.0¢ | +20.00 | $5.4 | |
| 3d | RogerFed | No / 73.0¢ | +40.00 | $29.2 | |
| 3d | RogerFed | No / 71.0¢ | +20.00 | $14.2 | |
| 3d | bilibobz | Yes / 29.0¢ | +20.00 | $5.8 | |
| 3d | AJSV | No / 67.0¢ | +20.00 | $13.4 | |
| 3d | chambrrrrr | No / 67.0¢ | -20.00 | $13.4 | |
| 3d | 0x9457...1f2733 | No / 73.0¢ | +20.00 | $14.6 |
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